The Green Take on Vote Splitting

As we approach voting for the imminent federal election, we are all hearing the cries for “strategic voting”. Voting Green – i.e., sending a strong message that people in this province want real action on climate change, along with the dynamic socioeconomic fairness laid out in our platform – IS the more strategic vote.

(If you haven't read the GREEN PARTY OF CANADA’S PLAN, you will find it here.)

This is especially so in our home province, where for three elections in a row, not a single federal riding was won by Saskatchewan Conservatives by the number of votes that Green candidates achieved in those ridings. That means that Conservatives would still have won if not one Green vote were counted. All those Green votes did nothing to influence the outcome for the Conservatives. Those Green votes did show that there are voters in Saskatchewan who care for environmental protection and socioeconomic justice; A base to build on into the future.

I would also remind those who say “This election is different from the others because of the Poilievre threat”, of how desperate we were to get rid of Harper in 2015. In 2015, Canadians elected a Liberal majority.

This letter is based on math, not opinion. It’s not based on polls, with their varying factors. This is mathematical information showing the last three federal elections' worth of Green voting (especially in Saskatchewan) and how it affected the Conservative Party candidates’ results.

Across the country, actual results are laid out in math:

2021:The Conservatives only got 1 seat by the number of votes that the Green Party candidate got in that riding (in MB). That means ALL Green voters in that riding would have had to vote for the second-place candidate to have any effect on the outcome. Strategic voting would have had no effect.

2019: CPC won 16 ridings by the number (or close to it) of 'Green votes' in those ridings. Twice we came in 3rd, once 5th (in Quebec), the rest 4th. Again, this means that if ALL Greens figured out who the second-place candidate was and voted that way, only 16 ridings would have been affected across the whole country. Even 100% accurate “strategic” voting would not have changed the outcome. And many Greens would have had to vote against their beliefs and hopes.

2015: 11 ridings were won by Conservatives by the same number of votes as Green candidates received, but in each case, we are assuming that every last Green voter could have figured out who the 2nd place party was and then willingly would have voted that way! This is incredibly unlikely. (In 2015 a few ridings would have needed all – but under 100 – GPC voters to get it right.) Basically, in nearly every case, it would have taken a near-impossible level of coordination, and EVERY Green having to swallow their principles, for a Conservative to have been affected by strategic voting AND IT STILL WOULD NOT HAVE CHANGED THE OVERALL NATIONAL OUTCOME. 

And in Saskatchewan, a reminder again, Green votes would not have affected even one riding’s outcome in any of those three elections.

This is pure and simple math. If you want CHANGE, Vote for It. If you want to send a clear message as to the values you support, vote Green. Strategic voting is pure crap and you know it in your heart. You know it in your gut when you feel your stomach turn and vote for a party you don’t believe in. Vote Green.

 

Yours Sincerely,

Naomi Hunter 

Saskatchewan Green Party Leader


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